THE MODELS
NCAAF Model
I began formulating my first college football model in 2016 as a hobby and a way to mitigate the impact that emotions were having on my betting decisions. Each year since 2016 i have improved the model and during the 2020-21 season I decided to start this website. In the years since i started the website i have been successful posting a greater than 50% win percentage every year and have had multiple years with greater than 60% wins. Very few professional handicappers consistently achieve a 60% win percentage, especially when making a large number of picks (my model generates approximately 8-10 picks per week). I have always believed that my algorithm was capable of consistently predicting correctly at or beyond the 60% level.
This years models are the most sophisticated we have ever produced aided largely by AI. The unbelievable capabilities of AI have allowed me to gather, analyze and test data in a manner that was impossible in years past.
Every year I am able to add the statistics of approximately 750-900 games to my historical database. I use this additional data to improve my algorithms, which are based on approximately 40 statistical categories. This year i will be utilizing four (4) separate models internally to determine my weekly picks. When three (3) or more of the models agree on a play, those plays will be considered Tier 1 picks. When only two (2) of the models identify a pick, it will be considered a Tier 2 pick.
I will begin posting picks for the 2026-26 season on September 10, 2026 and then weekly thereafter.
NFL Model
2026 will be the second year that i officially release NFL picks as i now have enough of a track record and statistical data to feel confident in my selections.
Posting Schedule
We intend to post our picks each week during the college football season by approximately 6pm Eastern time Thursday. The lines used for all picks are based upon publicly available lines at the time of posting. I will determine results and win/loss records based upon the lines shown on the weekly Thursday posts and plan to post results weekly by 6pm Eastern time on the following Tuesday.
Betting
We suggest placing all of your college football bets for the weekend as soon as they are posted by us on Thursday. Betting prior to game day will prevent significant line movements and will reduce emotion in bet sizing. Managing your bankroll is as important to sustainable and profitable wagering as picking winners.
We STRONGLY suggest you bet on all of our picks rather than cherry picking. The entire framework and concept of our models is that any single game is largely unpredictable, but over a large sample size the trends identified by our algorithm will repeat and provide the opportunity for predictable results and profitable wagering.
Lastly, we suggest betting 1 unit (approximately 5% of your bankroll) on Tier 1 picks and 3% of your bankroll on Tier 2 picks.